The Lamacchia Monthly Housing Report highlights home sale statistics, average sales prices, the number of homes listed and pending as well as price changes for single-families, condos, and multi-family homes in Massachusetts. For New Hampshire, it presents home sale statistics and average sales prices. These factors, when compared year over year, are all indicators for predicting future trends in the market. 2019 will be examined in some areas to highlight the lingering impact of COVID in real estate.
Highlights:
- Sales are down and prices are up, signifying that the market has shifted into more of a buyer’s market, making this the best Fall to buy in two years.
- Sellers for the first time in a while may not get to name their price in this fall market, as competition for homes is decreasing.
- Prices may not continue to rise at the pace they have been, but they aren’t decreasing either anytime soon.
- The number of new listings has decreased but so has the number of pending sales, which means that inventory is lingering longer than it has been which is a positive sign for buyers.
- The historically low mortgage rates we have been seeing during the COVID-19 pandemic are starting to rise and are now up to over 3%. However, this is still very low in terms of mortgage rates and should entice buyers to stay motivated to buy as rates and prices seem likely to continue to increase as the year progresses.
Massachusetts Home Sales Down 5%
Sales are down 5 percent year over year with September 2021 at 9,150 over 9,631 last September. Single family sales dropped year over year, condo sales dropped slightly, but multi-family sales are on the rise. There was an artificial reduction in multifamily sales last year due to the potential issues landlords were afraid to experience due to the eviction moratorium that was in place at the time. With that no longer an issue, sales are on the rise.
- Single families: 6,393 (2020) | 5,771 (2021)
- Condominiums: 2,490 (2020) | 2,471 (2021)
- Multi-families: 748 (2020) | 908 (2021)
Although single family sales are down year over year, see the orange and turquoise lines below, inventory is higher than it’s been all year. However, as we head into the end of the year, inventory levels may start to trend downward to level out to inventory at the end of 2020 or could plateau through the end of 2021. Therefore, buyers need to capitalize on the higher inventory while the iron is hot, as it’s going to be the best time to buy in two years.
Average prices have continued their rise with another year-over-year increase of 14.1%, now at $586,691. Prices increased in every category.
- Single families: $572,226 (2020) | $636,911 (2021)
- Condominiums: $409,379 (2020) | $456,099 (2021)
- Multi-families: $543,783 (2020) | $671,940 (2021)
2020 was an outlier market due to the pandemic. September 2021 compared to September 2019 saw an increase in sales by 19% and an increase in prices by 25.4%, which means that this market is still incredibly hot despite some percentages year over year being down.
Homes Listed For Sale:
There were 6.8% fewer listings this year compared to last September 2020. But 4.6% fewer listings over this time in 2019. This means that last year, listings were higher than the year prior due to the delayed market as a result of COVID.
- 2021 – 10,451
- 2020 – 11,210
- 2019 – 10,950
Homes Placed Under Agreement (Pending Home Sales):
The number of homes placed under contract is down by 8.5% when compared to September 2020 but up by 5.3% over September 2019. Last September was what we referred to as a frenzied market, but the drop in pending home sales indicates that competition is much less intense this year giving buyers the break they needed going into the Fall.
- 2021 – 8,974
- 2020 – 9,813
- 2019 – 8,522
Price Changes:
Price changes decreased by 5% year over year. Some sellers got a little overzealous last year pricing high with the market as intense as it was due to the astronomical demand and plummeting supply. Now, with fewer aggressive buyers and with inventory peaked for the year, sellers will have to price accordingly based on the market now and not months ago.
- 2021 – 912
- 2020 – 960
- 2019 – 1,222
New Hampshire Home Sales Down 5.4%
Highlights:
- The decrease in sales when compared to September 2020 is a sign that the demand is slowing down a bit giving current buyers a break with competition.
- Prices are still rising, as they will continue to do, so buy now to get the best price possible while mortgages are still less expensive to obtain.
- A decrease in sales means that sellers should also be careful with pricing too high. Make sure you attract more buyers with an appropriate list price.
- We can see that sales have decreased confirming our expectation that this Fall would be the most advantageous time for buyers in two years, so buyers should be ready to get out there and secure a home before competition rises and inventory decreases in the winter.
Sales decreased by 12.2% for condos and for single-families by 8.2% but increased by 23.9% for multi-families in NH when compared to September 2020.
- Single families: 1,913 (2020) | 1,757 (2021)
- Condominiums: 531 (2020) | 466 (2021)
- Multi-families: 117 (2020) | 145 (2021)
Prices are still on the rise, now up by 13.7% over 2020. While diminished competition may inherently lessen the number of bidding wars, prices will continue to rise as supply continues to be tight. Pricing increases may not spike as much over the next few months, which is a good sign for current buyers.
- Single families: $423,010 (2020) | $483,335 (2021)
- Condominiums: $290,003 (2020) | $325,973 (2021)
- Multi-families: $365,518 (2020) | $389,086 (2021)
The market is trying to catch up to where it would have been had COVID not put a massive wrench in the works, but it’s not quite there yet.
Data provided by Warren Group & MLS PIN for MA, and by NEREN for NH then compared to the prior year.